On Feb. 22, BMO reported that precious metals such as palladium and gold will benefit from the escalating situation in Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia, while commodities such as aluminum and nickel are also worth watching. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said tensions escalated in the West in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he recognized two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to be sent there as "peacekeepers."
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would release the first sanctions against Russia, targeting two Russian banks and sovereign debt. Biden also called Russia's actions "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Earlier in the day, Germany announced it was halting the certification process for nord Stream 2 gas pipeline imports from Russia. In addition, the EU imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian Duma and banned purchases of Russian government bonds.
Això podria ser només el començament de les sancions contra Rússia, per això l'informe de BMO va decidir analitzar l'impacte potencial en els fluxos comercials de productes bàsics.
"Ultimately, we expect Russian commodity exports to shift from Europe and North America to Asia," bMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton said. A change in existing trade routes would lead to temporary disruption of market fundamentals, with precious metals being the commodities most affected by the shortage."
Palladium is the best performer of all precious metals, with Russia accounting for 39 per cent of the world's refined metal supply. Palladium prices have surged 24 per cent so far this year. Hamilton warned that further supply disruptions from Russia could lead to a sharp rise in palladium prices.
"Supply uncertainty, combined with the resumption of auto production, led to higher palladium prices... Russia is expected to account for 9 per cent of gold, 6 per cent of silver, 11 per cent of platinum and 8 per cent of rhodium supply respectively."
A més de les preocupacions sobre el subministrament, l'atractiu-refugi segur dels metalls preciosos està atraient més inversors que busquen seguretat davant la caiguda de la borsa global.
Hamilton added: "Safe-haven investment demand in the market is also stimulating gold prices, which have recovered to around 1,900 an ounce."
Rússia és un proveïdor important no només de petroli, sinó també de diverses matèries primeres estratègiques que haurien de beneficiar-se de l'augment de les tensions geopolítiques a l'Europa de l'Est, va dir Phil Streible, estrateg de mercat en cap de Blue Line Futures. Amb els subministraments de petroli i gas ajustats, els preus del cru podrien pujar per sobre dels 100 o fins i tot dels 120 el barril, va dir Streible.
Other strategic metals such as palladium, copper and cobalt will also benefit further, he said. "Russia is the second largest platinum producer in the world, the first palladium producer, the third largest wheat producer," he said. Wheat prices have begun to rise, up 4.85 percent so far this year. Russia produces 3.5 percent of the world's copper. As demand for electric cars increases, copper is one of the main ingredients... Russia produces 4 percent of the world's cobalt, which is used in batteries for electric cars. So Russia is a very strategic country in terms of commodity production, commodity exports and the direction of the global economy."
L'analista de matèries primeres de Bmo, Colin Hamilton, va afegir que també val la pena veure productes bàsics com l'alumini i el níquel, especialment a Europa i Amèrica del Nord. A nivell mundial, els subministraments russos no són necessàriament tan importants, però estan ben establerts als mercats desenvolupats. Potser el més important és que les existències d'aquestes mercaderies ja són baixes. A més, espera que les primes d'alumini de LME a Europa i Amèrica del Nord pugin a curt termini.
